Gambler’s Fallacy
The Gambler’s Fallacy is a common misconception in the world of gambling and probability, where a person believes that the outcome of a random event is influenced by previous outcomes. For instance, if a roulette wheel lands on red several times in a row, someone might think that black is “due” to come up next, assuming that the universe somehow balances out the results. However, in reality, each spin of the roulette wheel is independent, and the probability of landing on red or black remains the same regardless of past spins.
This fallacy can lead gamblers to make irrational decisions, such as betting more heavily on what they believe is an overdue outcome, often resulting in losses. The term illustrates a fundamental misunderstanding of randomness and probability, emphasizing that past events do not influence future ones in independent trials. Understanding the Gambler’s Fallacy is crucial for anyone engaging in games of chance, as it helps in recognizing the unpredictable nature of such activities and making more informed decisions.